His 23 percent infield/fly ball rate is third-highest in the majors, trailing only Corey Patterson and Mark Trumbo. Kiner-Falefa had a slash line of .261/.314/.327 . Looking solely at defense, these are the types of players who compare with Heyward. Dec 11 2015 Signed an 8 year $184 million contract with Chicago (CHC) Nov 15 2015 Player declined $15.8 million qualiying offer. A decade ago, the serious baseball fan serious, as in desperately wanting to increase his or her chances of winning his or her fantasy league had few places to turn. Taking the runs above average on offense from the offensive group and the runs above average from the defensive group, adding in the value of a replacement player by averaging the plate appearances from the two groups and then using ten runs per win, we can get an approximate value. Earlier this week, August Fagerstrom took a look at recent seasons authored first of Mike Trout and then of Clayton Kershaw and compared them to the greatest peaks of all time. Attempting to measure defense with advanced statistics like UZR and DRS has its critics, and attempting to place a value on it can be difficult. These were the players remaining. Jason Heyward isnt Mike Trout. The team appears content to begin the season with Trayce Thompson as the starter. This is how it usually works with increases in pulled grounders: Its a consequence of taking a more power-centric approach. While Heyward did fall into some bad habits at the plate last year and has some durability concerns, this is a perfect time to buy low on a youthful outfielder with superstar potential. He went second to home on a single 82% of the time, which was 16th-best among 131 players. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors According to Fangraphs, during his first six seasons, Jason Heyward was "worth" $198.1 million. by Retrosheet. Heywards .113 ISO was no less than 71 points below his career mark entering this year, he slugged just .384 and notched only 58 RBIs, despite making about one-third of his plate appearances as the fifth hitter in the Braves order. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Rojas, a 34-year-old, glove-first veteran, was acquired in the winter to aid the groups depth. But hes younger than Dustin Ackley, Jemile Weeks, Paul Goldschmidt, Dee Gordon, Jason Kipnis and a host of other rookies who had successful debuts in 2011, and hes younger than top-ranked prospects entering 2012 like Devin Mesoraco, Brett Jackson and Travis DArnaud. Some call it a sweeper. It was a true comfort level, not rattled at all. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, After the home run, back in the zone with offspeed pitches. In the *other* MVP debate, Miguel Cabrera represented, perhaps, a belief in the older-school stats, those three fetishized numbers that have been in the newspapers since the games inception. Its easy to lose sight of Heywards age, considering that he has been in the majors for two years, stands 6-foot-5, 240 pounds and could probably grow a beard by noon if he shaved right now. These comparable players here are not quite as accomplished as those from the WAR group above, which is to be expected given defense is not taken into account. Matt Carpenter was the reverse. Overall, the group still put up above average numbers offensively. Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards. The games, as you well know, havent mattered yet. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Apparently the Dodgers will do anything to keep James Outman on the farm. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. 1 seed Bradley Braves (24-8, 16-4 MVC) square off against the No. Just ask Jason Heyward. Heyward does need to keep the ball of the grass and pare down the pop ups to truly tap into his power, but its important to remember that hes still younger than many celebrated rookies and prospects. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Jason Alias Heyward (born August 9, 1989), nicknamed " J-Hey " is an American professional baseball right fielder for the Los Angeles Dodgers organization. Those are just selective links, but they show Heyward with a right-center approach, and a good amount of batted-ball authority. Just to be clear, this isnt a matter of Heyward trading fly balls for line drives; his batted ball distribution, including his GB/FB rate, has stayed remarkably steady over the past three seasons, a period that includes his 2012 campaign in which he bashed a career-high 27 home runs. Chicago Cubs. A few trade pickups last year are rated highly in 2023. FanGraphs' Roster Resource has Adrian Sampson in the fifth spot in the rotation, but he has the ability to function as a long reliever/sixth starter if need be. Perhaps its fitting, if random, that Heywards most recent highlights on MLB.com are all home-run-saving catches. 2022 Updated In-Season Projections Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors He has played in Major League Baseball (MLB) for the Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs. fangraphs.com 1d. Even with the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders, Heyward was likely the victim of some bad bounces. I think thats in the ballpark. Instead, Heyward will step into the box for his first post-All-Star at-bat with a .226/.315/.404 triple-slash. Oliver: .273/.367/.475, 19 HR All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. ESPN rated the oufielder 11th in the system, Baseball America had him 12th, and The Athletic rated De Paula 18th. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. With a 21.8 percent infield fly ball rate, he hit the ball up the elevator shaft more often than any batter with at least 400 plate appearances. This group also aged incredibly well. Its really impressive to see a guy go out there and throw a ton of strikes and throw strikes with his offspeed pitches. Ground balls are a function of the swings, and consider Xander Bogaerts. by Handedness, swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. First, there are questions as to whether Heyward is actually worth as much as the defensive metrics say he is. The Royals, Billy Butler, and Young Pitching. I am obligated to mention that Mike Trout still has two more seasons to add to his totals. No matter which group you look at, he is likely to be a productive player at age 30. Depending on ones point of view, it was an effort that was either an improvement in his development as a still-young hitter or a disturbing blight on his future value. Support FanGraphs. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Indiana State vs Bradley MVC Tournament odds, tips and betting trends. Games, Puzzles, and Crossword. He went second to home on a single. Notable in the Dodgers lineup is Jason Heyward playing in back-to-back games for the first time this spring, starting in centerfield for the second straight day. From BIS, Heyward had the highest range numbers in the business. For a big man, he can run a little Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. 3 outfielder who has yet to prove hes a reliable high-end fantasy option. Over the last four years, he hasn't had a wRC+ under 110 or over 121, but there's so clearly the. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Jordan Walker has a 28.5 ft/s Sprint Speed, good for an 80% percentile red lollipop once he gets a Savant slider. All this before you look at his 11 home runs, easily a career low, less than the 14 he put up in two separate seasons when he averaged just 448 plate appearances. Even if Heyward were to hit for more power, that might be offset by a drop in singles, or by an increase in strikeouts. Hows it going to go? Dont look at me. Karl, a journalist living in Washington, D.C., learned about life's disappointments by following the Mets beginning at a young age. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. His 2012 projections are strong Gomber is working on a two-seam, sinking fastball that he hopes will work at altitude. Just how healthy is Heyward? Latest News/Blog Posts about Jason Heyward. Watch as both teams attempt to take one step closer to . Only Al Kaline, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey, Jr., and Alex Rodriguez were within 15 runs on defense and ahead of him on offense. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. dodgersnation.com - Jeff Snider 10h Read more on dodgersnation.com Trejo, 27, is fine with pushing for all the starts he can at second if thats his opportunity to be in the lineup. My favorite minor story line this season is that the Cubs are paying about $40 million to replace Heyward with Bellinger, and the Dodgers are paying about $0 to replace Bellinger with Heyward. But as far as I believe, batted-ball distributions arent as noisy as, say, BABIP. The grounders are just about all pulled. The lack of power does prevent easy comparison to most free agent mega-deals. Anyhow, heres where Heyward has hit baseballs in spring 2016: Of course Im wary of talking about anything based on so little data. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Jason Heyward graphs for Major League baseball. Jason Heyward, who was instrumental in the lore of the infamous Game 7 rain delay, was once the thorn in the side of fans looking for a scapegoat to blame for the club's lack of spending. 2023 Updated In-Season Projections and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. As teams expect to get the best production at the beginning of the contract, they understand that a contract will likely underpay the player in the early years and potentially overpay him as he ages with the surplus from the beginning ideally canceling out the loss at the end. From 26 to 35, the group got better offensively and the only player who completely busted was Carey Patterson. We're asking for your help to make it. Our premise is that their bad (or Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the by Handedness. Advanced fielding statistics Ultimate Zone Rating (. There are not enough players here to draw conclusions, but it might be worth looking into whether good, young defensive players age better overall as hitters. He has slugged eight homers in 599 plate appearances as a big leaguer. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not. With an injury (and a team deflation) taking some of the wind out of Stantons sails, and Buster Posey blowing up the National League Most Valuable Player debate, the new toys got a lot more attention than the old new ones. Aggravating as it might be, we dont know the answers to those questions. I dont want to start my first game of Spring Training going 3-0 on a guy or nibbling. Crossword; Sudoku; Crossword; Sudoku _____ About Us Examining The Cubs' Fifth Starter Options from MLBTradeRumors.com at 2/22/2023 4:39:00 AM. Crawford debuted young, but due to a team-friendly contract, he did not become a free agent until after his age-28 season, three years older than Heyward. I used ten-year figures in this analysis, but moving to an eight- or nine-year contract would not significantly change the values, as the bulk of all production is recorded in the early part of the contract. But as long as were just having fun here, consider a few numbers. If you took Jason Heyward in your draft this year you almost certainly spent a pretty penny on him. FanSided 1 day Jason Heyward . That is a major boost for lefty pull hitters like Soto (who hit 38.1 percent of his balls in play to the right field side last season, per Fangraphs). Combining average power with a low strikeout rate (14.8% in 2015) and a solid walk rate (9.2%), Heywards wRC+ of 121 puts him in the upper third in terms of the leagues hitters. Gavin Lux is likely . All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Im not all that mad about it. Believe it or not, on a team with Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman, and Martin Prado, Bourn was tied with Jason Heyward with the most fWAR for position players on the Atlanta Braves. 2023 Pre-Season Projections 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. Heyward will get paid. That was awesome, Kapler said. Players who rove around the outfield will qualify at the specific outfield position where he played the most innings provided it was a minimum of 75 percent (475 innings) of total innings at the specific position. Whether he finds a home with Cleveland certainly wont depend on whether Quinn can maintain his power output. The 19-year old was a first round pick in 2007 and has wasted no time The 19-year old was a first round pick in 2007 and has wasted no time establishing himself as a premier outfielder Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the 15th best OPS+ ever for a hitter who qualified for the batting title but couldnt legally buy a beer. The pre-season #1 prospect, whose legend grew with each car he dented while going deep in spring training, batted .277/.393/.456. They were like, Why are you not throwing it with a [sinker] grip and try to get used to it and learn how to throw it?. His rookie year was off-the-charts good One of the hottest young prospects in baseball right now is Atlanta's Jason Heyward. Alan Trejo will likely move into the second base spot with Brendan Rodgers on the IL. Check out the company Heyward kept among under-21 hitters qualifying for the batting title: If youre keeping score at home, there are 13 Hall of Famers and two future first-ballot Hall of Famers on that list of 22 names. Ronald Guzmnex-first baseman for the Texas Rangers, is pumping out 97-98 fastballs. On June 3, Higgins recorded his first major league hit, . Heywards year wasnt in the same realm as Ott, Mantle or A-Rod, but he outdid Willie Mays, Hank Aaron (outside of the top 25 with a 103 OPS+) and Johnny Bench, among many others, and kept company with Junior Griffey. I looked for outfielders from 1960 to 2007 who produced defensive runs above average (which includes the positional adjustment) within 20 runs of Heywards 61.9 runs above average mark. Heres a powerful triple to center. Depending how long Rodgers is out of the lineup and whether the Rockies want to let him continue his preparation into the early days of the regular season someone has to play second. Quinn worked this winter with hitting consultant Ryan Sutterer, who analyzed Quinns body movements and helped him understand how he can repeat his mechanics on a consistent basis. For instance, Heyward, batting primarily in the leadoff spot for the first time in his career, put up a solid .351 OBP, scored 74 runs and stole 20 bases at an impressive 83% success rate, all while batting .271, the second-best mark of his big league tenure. The team is confident in . Effectively Wild Episode 87: Baseball and the BCS/Halladay vs. Lee/Does the Success Cycle Still Exist? Dodgers 'believe' in Jason Heyward; can swing change revive his career? What follows is an attempt to find similar players to Heyward using various methods: WAR, offense, defense, and a hybrid of offense and defense. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Thats just how it goes. Jeff Zimmerman found that speedy players, like Heyward, age better than the rest of the baseball population. Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. Thompson revived his career in Los Angeles last summer, hitting 13 homers with a .901 OPS. So what is his value in an auction re-draft league? Age is the decisive factor here. But consider this for a moment: despite those negatives, despite Heyward dealing with a lingering right shoulder injury and despite a 75 point drop in his batting average on balls in play (from .335 to .260), Heyward was still basically a league-average hitter in 2011. The numbers may seem outrageous, but MLB revenues have been rising at very high rates, and there is so rarely a player of Heywards caliber and age that the market will likely have a difficult time finding a consensus. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. . The fact that he gets value from non-traditional means is also not a brain buster. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. This spring, Heyward has hit 18 flies and liners, and hes sent two of them toward left. Thats been fairly consistent. Castellanos hit just .263/.305/.389 for a 94 wRC+ (matching his career-worst mark . 1 day ago. After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that Justin Upton was acquired to hit directly When Ellsbury was Heywards age, he had just completed his second full season. But, when seen in the light of this years AL MVP debate, as well as the context of these four young outfielders, it is remarkable that Heyward has taken a similar path to Mike Trout, even with an athleticism that might be touch short of that demonstrated by the American League Rookie of the Year. Here is how they performed over their next ten seasons. The team is heavy on left-handed hitting outfielders, with David Peralta locked in along with Jason Heyward fighting for a spot and top prospect James Outman on the cusp. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Maybe Heyward just belongs in that 110 120 range of wRC+. Heyward was a little below the average offensively and well above the average defensively. Especially because of the accidental report that floated this week about Canario already being back on the field doing baseball work (he's not; still way too early for . FanGraphs crowdsourcing puts Heywards predicted contract at eight years and $184 million while Dave Cameron predicted a return to the Cardinals on a nine-year, $195 million contract with an opt-out after four years, making the value of the contract in excess of $200 million. Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as "more than adequate" in the field at center. Nick Frasso, who had a 1.83 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 54 innings last season, was acquired from the Blue Jays in . Nov 6 2015 Extended a $15.8 million qualiying offer by St. Louis (STL) Nov 17 2014 Traded to St. Louis (STL) from Atlanta (ATL) with Jordan Walden for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. Heyward and David Peralta, a pair of veteran left-handed hitters, could see time against right-handed pitchers. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. Bill James It was a massive year-to-year swing, as Bogaerts concentrated on getting hits the other way. Now, increasingly deprived of opportunities to pull pitches, Heyward in recent years has been going the other way more often, and 2014 saw more than 19% of his plate appearances end with him hitting the ball to the opposite field, a new career high, and a credible explanation for the plunge in distance and home runs. 5 seed Indiana State Sycamores (22-11, 13-7 MVC) in the MVC Tournament Saturday at Enterprise Center, beginning at 3:30 PM on CBS Sports Network. According to Statcast, Walker registered a sprint speed of 28.5 feet per second with 30 feet per second being considered elite-level speed usually reserved for middle infielders and cat-quick centerfielders. When Heyward is Ellsburys age, he will have just finished Year Six, or might have already opted out for another big contract. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. He has been a well above-average hitter in the majors at an age when most players are in a short-season league, A-Ball or college. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Similarly, if you focus on Heywards triple crown numbers .269 with 27 home runs and 82 RBI youd be missing all that extra value he added in other facets of the game. FanGraphs Membership. Sort the leaderboards for UBR or Ultimate BaseRunning, and Heyward floats to the top. Heywards value also wasnt helped by a Braves lineup that finished among baseballs worst in wOBA and runs scored, and if the Braves were to move Evan Gattis this winter to make room for Christian Bethancourt, the lineup likely would only be weaker in 2015. There are two graphs below estimating the value of Heywards comps over the next ten years. Swinging at more off-the-plate pitches, hitting the ball up the elevator shaft, smacking ground balls like a slap-hitting middle infielder none of these are good things. Miguel Rojas will replace Lux at shortstop. Granted, we cant just assume that Heyward will stay healthy from here on out (he had a thumb injury as a rookie and had some minor hip and shin ailments before that), but those are conservative projections if he does come to camp with a mended shoulder. The Chicago Cubs already boasted one of the best young . Teams should, and likely do, look at adding years to a contract as spreading out money over a longer time period rather than seeking an extra year of value. His arm isnt great BIS had him costing the Braves three runs in that manner but his range was so impressive that he offered center-field like defense even once he was penalized for playing in the corner outfield. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. While hes never going to be a big stolen base threat, hes a quality athlete for a power forward-sized corner outfielder. Andy Pages emerging, however, could free Taylor up for the infield (we'll talk about him more in a bit). He swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (28.3%, compared to 23.3% in 2010), which led to a dip in his walk rate (11.2 BB%). Sure, Bourn did not light the world on fire with his wRC+ of 117 and slash line of .274/.348/.391, but it was 17.0 percent better than league average. I cant wait to see how this turns out. Out of 11 players, only Jim Fregosis production would not have justified a $200 million contract. Heyward and David Peralta, a pair of veteran left-handed hitters, could see time against right-handed pitchers. While the $330 million figure is likely the one that jumps out, I would direct your attention to the smallest number: $159 million. But, man oh man, do people ever love to talk about Jason Heyward not hitting for enough power. Jason Heyward is not immune from those forces, but based on what he has done so far, his future could provide his employer with significant value on one of the biggest contracts in MLB history. Searching again for players from 1960 to 2007, limiting those players through age-25 within 20% of Heywards PAs, but instead of using WAR, look at players with a wRC+ between 110 and 125 and within 15 points of Heywards 121 wRC+ at age 25. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire. Ellsbury, now 32, has been worth 21 wins since turning 26 while Crawford, 34, has been worth 22 wins over the last eight seasons. Very obviously, he can sting a ball when he gets extended. Also keep in mind that ZiPS, Bill James and Oliver dont know that Heyward was taking cuts with a bad shoulder last year; they just see a young guy who struggled after a fantastic rookie year.